Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Lapid Leverages the Media: A Micro Case Study

When Egyptian President el-Sissi stated in an AP interview that he wanted to expand Egypt's peace treaty with Israel to include other Arab states, it was great news for Israel, and Netanyahu's office was quick to respond. I went online for background (expecting to find mention of the growing common interests of Egypt, Saudi Arabia vis-a-vis Iran, Islamic State, etc.) and found "Netanyahu praises Sisi's call to expand Egypt-Israel peace to other Arab states" written by the JPost.COM Staff (get it here) (no authors stated by name).

This seemed to be what I was looking for. When I opened the article, I discovered, however, something entirely different. Stay with me as we analyze this short article.

Let's Check the Numbers  (total article length - 408 words)

 

Title and Introductory Subheadings (47 words)

 

In addition to the article title, I found linked sub-headings to Abbas' expected bombshell at the UN and to Yair Lapid's support for the 2002 Saudi Initiative (actually his recent Bar-Ilan speech). There was a further sub-heading (unlinked) about Netanyahu's call to Abbas to return to the negotiating table. The article title and sub-headngs amounted to 47 words, but only 13 of those words related to Netanyahu's response. Nine words were the link to Lapid's Bar Ilan speech.


Body of the Article (361 words)

 

The first subject covered was the el-Sissi response. The first 87 words pertained to Netanyahu's response including a short quote from his office's press release, which we were informed was released before the onset of Succot (I suppose to allay the fears of religious readers). What was really interesting, however, was Lapid's response (186 words! including another link to the same link as previously, except this time called the 'Bar-Ilan speech').

The second subject in the article was Lapid's and Netanyahu's upcoming trips to the US, with more prominence given to Lapid's trip (Lapid's is first although it will be chronologically after Netanyahu's). We were informed that Lapid will be going to the US after the Succot holiday to discuss his 'diplomatic initiative' with American lawmakers (32 words). (What! Does an Opposition leader make diplomatic initiatives?!) Afterward, the article mentions that Netanyahu will be going to speak at the UN (22 words).

The third subject is more about Abbas (34 words).

Conclusion 

 

So what are our conclusions about this article, which is ostensibly about the Netanyahu's response to el-Sissi's remarks (that was the title of the article).
Netanyahu - 100 words; Lapid 195 words, plus two separate links to Lapid's Bar-Ilan speech.

On trips to the US:
Netanyahu - 22 words; Lapid 32 words

The rest was on Abbas.

In short,  Lapid succeeded in garnering 50% of the article + 2 separate links to his Bar-Ilan speech; Netanyahu had 25% with no links, and the rest was about Abbas (25%).

A Final Word 

 

What I believe happened here is that the article started out as Netanyahu's response to el-Sissi. Netanyahu's team rushed to get out a response before Succot and then, having done their duty, went home to prepare for the holiday. In contrast, it seems that Lapid actually talked with the reporters by phone (he is quoted), and his office followed up with his post-Succot US trip (Lapid's 'diplomatic initiative'). Lapid and his team were more focused on the reporters and gave them more information. Therefore, Lapid's positions came to dominate the article. Netanyahu's media team was already in holiday mode and, therefore, Netanyahu came in a poor second.

Many years ago, Marshall McLuhan said 'the medium is the message'. If you dominate the medium, your message will dominate. I must pay my highest respects to Lapid. The man is a media genius. He was handed the subject of Netanyau's el-Sissi reply and turned it into an article mostly about himself. In short, Lapid dominated this article and clearly won this micro media skirmish.

I suggest that we all read and listen to the mass media with discernment, because it is likely that an attempt is being made to manipulate, and at least we should know about it. Lastly, please note that intensive media involvement per event is not the only way that Lapid handles the media. In a previous blog, I showed how Lapid manipulates the press by more subtle means.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Netanyahu To Speak at United Nations

Some may think that Netanyahu's speeches are controversial, but he is always interesting and worth listening to. Whether it's his speech to the US Congress or his speeches at the United Nations. In Netanyahu's speech to the UN on September 29, 2014, he said the following:
Despite the enormous challenges facing Israel, I believe we have an historic opportunity.

After decades of seeing Israel as their enemy, leading states in the Arab world increasingly recognize that together we and they face many of the same dangers: principally this means a nuclear-armed Iran and militant Islamist movements gaining ground in the Sunni world.

Our challenge is to transform these common interests to create a productive partnership. One that would build a more secure, peaceful and prosperous Middle East.

Together we can strengthen regional security. We can advance projects in water, agriculture, in transportation, in health, in energy, in so many fields.

I believe the partnership between us can also help facilitate peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Many have long assumed that an Israeli-Palestinian peace can help facilitate a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab World. But these days I think it may work the other way around: Namely that a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world may help facilitate an Israeli-Palestinian peace.

And therefore, to achieve that peace, we must look not only to Jerusalem and Ramallah, but also to Cairo, to Amman, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and elsewhere. I believe peace can be realized with the active involvement of Arab countries, those that are willing to provide political, material and other indispensable support. I’m ready to make a historic compromise ....
In other words, Netanyahu suggested first working with other Arab countries in the region that have common interests with Israel as a catalyst for a productive peace process with the Palestinians. This idea had been broached in the past but conditions were perhaps not ripe for progress.

Netanyahu's domestic naysayers will say, perhaps, that this is just another Netanyahu ploy to avoid any real peace process with the Palestinians, because Netanyahu's coalition is 'extreme right' and against any kind of settlement of the conflict, as he is himself. (This argument avoids the inconvenient fact that Avigdor Liberman is no longer in the Coalition.)

Now, there has been an interesting development. The Egyptian President said on September 27, 2015, ahead of Netanyahu's UN speech in an interview with the Associated Press, that efforts should be renewed to solve the Palestinian issue and expand Egypt's nearly 40-year-peace with Israel to include more Arab countries. And so, we see that Netanyahu's 2014 vision for ending the Palestinian conflict--and indeed it is a vision--is slowly but surely beginning to take shape. To Netanyahu's credit, he understood the opportunity of a changed Middle East after the so-called Arab Spring and identified the way to move carefully forward.
Whether you agree or disagree with Netanyahu, I suggest that we all watch his United Nations speech on Thursday, October 1. It will definitely be interesting and worthy of comment.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Volkswagen, Israel and the Virtues of Independent Testing

Here in Israel, we may be complacent about Volkswagen's troubles, but it's likely that you are affected (even if you don't drive one of these vehicles). This scandal is not related to faulty parts or bad workmanship. Volkswagen has admitted to fraud in its US diesel vehicle software, which detected the periodic, stationary gas emissions check at official vehicle testing stations (the 'test'), lowered power and performance and, thereby, lowered the emissions readout accordingly. After the check, the vehicle's emissions returned to their 'normal' high levels to provide better vehicle performance on the road. The number of vehicles of Volkswagen and its subsidiaries worldwide is 11 million.  Ironically, the fraud was detected by two testers who took a Volkswagen car on a long road trip to do research, checking emissions along the way, intending to show American manufacturers that they could make more emissions-effective automobiles.
Globes reported on Friday that Volkswagen shares had dropped 30%. Here in Israel, investment institutions holding Volkswagen shares were also affected proportionately, and you were too if you held Volkswagen shares or had Volkswagen shares in your mutual funds. It was reported that Altshuler Shaham is the biggest loser (NIS 41m on paper) including its mutual funds, but other well-known investment houses (Migdal, Psagot, etc.) were also affected.
Of course, everyone was surprised by Volkswagen's fraud. But that is what happens when there is no real, independent, systematic audit of private enterprise, leaving companies, whose bottom line is their major interest, to audit themselves. So, don't be surprised when the next big corporate fraud splashes into the headlines.
By the way, the nutrition data on our food product labels is also provided by the food manufacturing companies themselves. I wonder when this data will be subject to independent testing. But that's another story.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

The Gas Deal: Should We Approve or Reject?

The gas deal is still on the table and yet to be approved. Months have gone by with no final approval in sight. Opposition to the deal is strong, and the Coalition partners can't seem to agree.
I am not going to go into the deal's myriad of technical and economic details for the following reasons:
  1. I have not had time to read the probably thousands of pages describing the arrangements.
  2. I think that many of the arguments about this or that detail are skewed because of political or other interests. 
Now, I think that its fair to say that the Government wants to pass the deal because governments like to do things, especially if it means more money in the kitty that they can dole out to the public (it increases their chances of getting reelected). The Opposition, on the other hand, will find something wrong with anything that the Government does, because that prevents the Government from doing something, which increases the Opposition's chances of being the desirable 'alternative' in the next election.
As an ordinary citizen trying to figure things out, I am therefore in a quandary. Who do I believe? The Government, which tells me that they have a good deal, or the Opposition, which tells me that it is a bad deal.

Among the plethora of opinions, one opinion stands out: that of Karnit Flug, the Governor of the Bank of Israel. Karnit Flug is probably the most powerful economist in Israel. She not only has an entire building full of economists to help her figure things out, but she also doesn't have to worry about being reappointed till 2020. Furthermore, she is a powerhouse as an economist in her own right. She was Stanley Fisher's choice for Governor when he left office, and that is an excellent recommendation. On the other hand, there is no love loss between her and Bibi. She was not Bibi's choice for Governor. Not only that, Bibi did everything that he could to find someone else (because he didn't agree with her economics).

Let's remember who Bibi's pre-Flug choices were:
  • Mario Blejer, a former governor of Argentina’s central bank
  • Lawrence Summers, former US Treasury secretary
  • Jacob Frenkel, former Bank of Israel Governor
  • Leo Leiderman, chief economist at Israel’s Bank Hapoalim
Now that we've established that Karnit Flug is not a Bibi crony, let's see what her position on the gas deal is. One would expect that she would have an ax to grind with Bibi and might try to get 'even' with him for opposing her appointment. 

At the High Court of Justice on August 10, 2015, she said:

By the nature of negotiations, the outline does not achieve the ideal result, but it does contain many advantages for the economy.
The Bank of Israel’s position is that under the circumstances created, the new outline provides a reasonable response to the needs of the economy, particularly for the purpose of speeding up the connection of an additional natural gas pipeline and the promotion of development of the Leviathan and Karish and Tanin reservoirs.
In other words, she approves the deal. To her credit, she has chosen the best interest of the Israeli economy over any possible malice toward Bibi (how refreshing!).

So, when I think about who is right on the gas deal -- either naysayers Keren Neubach, Shelly Yachimovich, etc. on the one had, or the Government on the other, I think I will go with the Government. Yes, I really do think that Bibi is right on this one, and the reason is Karnit Flug.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Iceland Part 3: Islamophobia

During my investigation of the Reykjavik boycott issue, I consulted the Islam in Iceland site. The following is a quote from the article:  
Many public expressions of Islamophobia have ... been focused on opposition to the creation of a purpose-built Reykjavík mosque. Opposition to Islam is often presented in terms of support for gender equality, a discourse which in Kristín's assessment [Kristín Loftsdóttir is an Icelandic academic -kg] is 'used as a way to dwell on the criticism of Muslims in general, and to the glory of European societies'.
In other words, you are Islamophobic if:
  • You actually think that women should have equal rights with men
  • You don't want a mosque built next door (the Muslims do already have a dedicated prayer hall, so there is no restriction on freedom of worship in Reykjavik). Polls indicate that the majority of Icelanders don't want the mosque built. I wonder if they realize that down the line there will be a demand for high minarets and for muezzins using loudspeakers to call the faithful to prayer (even during the morning wee hours, when most people are sleeping). This, however, is something Icelanders will have to work out for themselves when the time comes, as are other European countries.
I think that it would be fair to state that the so-called 'glory of European societies' does, in fact, mean respecting the basic principles of human rights such as gender equality and not having a tiny minority disturb the rest and relaxation of the vast majority in the name of freedom of religion.
When the time comes to deal with claims of Islamophobia, it would be worthwhile to examine the substance of the Islamophobia argument, which I think would be revealed, in many cases, to be inconsistent with basic principles of Western tradition.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Iceland Part 2: Why the Boycott?

I must confess that I get that warm, fuzzy feeling when I think about Iceland. I still remember the famous Fischer-Spassky match for the World Chess Championship in 1972 in Reykjavik. Having a chess championship in Reykjavik is not startling; Iceland produces strong chess players despite being a small country (long, hard winters make a good chess-playing environment). A few years later, I had a short stopover in the city. The people were extremely friendly, and although prices were high, I bought an excellent all-wool sweater that I still have today. Icelandic wool was especially famous.

With contemporary Iceland, however, what is prominent for me is its anti-Israel stance. On the Israel boycott issue, the latest development is that the city of Reykjavik changed its all-Israeli-products boycott to  an "occupied territories" products boycott (can someone remind me who was governing those territories before we happened to 'occupy' them, because it was certainly not the Palestinians).

In an effort to understand Iceland's pro-Palestinian/anti-Israel position, I did a little research. Out of a total population of about 330K, there are only 875 Muslims in Iceland in 2015, and they come from diverse backgrounds: the Arab world, Albania, Africa, and Iceland. With regard to Jews, there are 50-150 in Iceland, some of them Israelis. Based on the numbers, it seems that neither group can provide much clout at the ballot box. In other words, the boycott issue was not a direct appeal to an ethnic group.

Now, being "anti-occupied territories" and pro-Palestinian is very trendy. The popular image is that Israel is 'strong' and the Palestinians are 'weak'. If you are an Icelandic politician and want to garner visibility because you are ambitious or out-of-power, this would seem to be a good 'moral' issue. After all, look at all the attention that the mayor of Reykjavik got. Fortunately, commentator Bennedikt Johanssen informs us, the city council's amateurish back-peddling and daily changes of policy have largely discredited the Reykjavik city council and its mayor

So, here we have it. Decades of poor public relations has taken its toll even in a small, faraway land with a minuscule Muslim population.

Finally, it is noteworthy that dedicated Israelis living in Iceland are making an effort to improve Israel's image. Ron and Maayan inform us that they had some Icelanders visit Israel, and as a result they became goodwill ambassadors for Israel in Iceland. Kol HaKavod.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Lapid on Iceland, But Be Careful of Thin Ice

Yair Lapid has produced a great post rebutting the City of Rekyavik's stated intention to boycott all Israeli products. He also succeeded in getting it printed a Reykjavik newspaper (I will deal with the subsequent change to a boycott of "conquered territories" products in another post). When I first read about the City of Reykjavik's intention a few days ago, I wondered about how to handle the issue in terms of pro-Israel public relations. Yair Lapid has certainly given us all a good lesson on how to do it. It was truly brilliant, as one would expect from a highly articulate and very experienced media personality. Not only that. He has filled a vacuum that was missing in our public relations.
This is not the first time that Lapid, as a member of the Opposition, has performed well in pro-Israel public relations. On August 8, 2015 he printed an article in Italian and German newspapers against the deal with Iran (and boycott of Israel).
http://www.ynet.co.il/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/0,2506,L-4688492,00.html
But let's be honest. Lapid is not really talking about the boycott. What he is telling us, not-so-subtly, is that he deserves to be Prime Minister, i.e., that Lapid can do a better job at foreign policy than Netanyahu. When I checked Lapid's post today, there were already 20,000 'likes,' and the "Lapid for Prime Minister" drums were pounding in rhythmic beat (although I didn't see anyone dancing around a bonfire). Dekel, for example, wrote that she doesn't understand why Lapid is not the Prime Minister.
But, my friends, that is the thin ice that we have to be very careful about. Because Lapid writes nice pro-Israel articles for the media, does that qualify him to be Prime Minister? Is he really the person that we want at the helm on complex issues vis-a-vis Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Authority or a variety of other delicate matters of foreign policy? Does Lapid have the maturity to make real-time decisions on a Middle East that is undergoing metamorphosis before our eyes? What concrete experience, excellence and accomplishment in public service does Lapid bring to the Prime Minister's table?
And let's remember something else. Israel was not idle when the City of Reykjavik declared its intention. In a couple of days, the Foreign Ministry succeeded in having the Icelandic Government declare its opposition to any boycott Israeli products, thereby relegating the City of Reykjavik's intended boycott to a dead letter.
I will be following the Iceland issue, the gas deal and Iranian nuclear agreement in future posts. If you like what you have seen, please stay tuned.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

What Do Donald Trump and Yair Lapid Have in Common?

Lapid may have chosen to join the Opposition, but he is still doing his utmost to stay in the limelight. Sometimes, the work is being done by his cronies, and the methods they use and messages they are delivering to us are more subtle than you may think.

For example, take the following article by former Yesh Atid Knesset Member Dov Lipman (and currently chairman of Anglo and Diaspora Affairs for Yesh Atid) in the August 28, 2015 Jerusalem Post. The article is ostensibly entitled: Israel is in dire need of a leader with 'the Trump Factor.'

The whole article analyzes Donald Trump’s startling success in the polls in the United States. Then, comes Lipman's finale:

“Israel is in dire need of a leader with the Trump Factor: “A man of the people” who recognizes the need to address the “smaller” day-to-day concerns of the population; who has the will and courage to think outside the box to find the most simple solutions to our challenges; and someone with the freedom and moral clarity to make decisions that are in the best interest of the country completely independent of special interests. Such a leader will get Israel back on course, and make Israel great again.”

I guess that Dov Lipman is asking us, the readers, to conclude that Yair Lapid is the one with the Trump Factor in Israeli politics. Now, Dov, that one wasn’t very hard. But why didn't you just come out and say who you really were talking about?
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/The-Trump-factor-413515

Friday, September 18, 2015

Netanyahu: Dershowitz's View from America

Netanyahu: Dershowitz's View from America

With all the anti-Bibi vitriol nowadays, it might be useful to take a step back and see what people are saying from across the pond. Alan Dershowitz of Harvard is certainly the most articulate Israel defender worldwide and perhaps the most famous. He has written several books defending Israel. 

This is what he had to say about Bibi in the September 10, 2015 Jerusalem Post:
"Since he became prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has brought Iran’s nuclear ambitions to the forefront of world attention. He insisted – quite correctly – that Iran was determined to develop a nuclear arsenal, even when a phony US “intelligence assessment” concluded that the mullahs had abandoned their nuclear weapons ambitions in 2003. If Iran is ultimately stopped from obtaining nuclear weapons, with or without the deeply flawed deal, Netanyahu will deserve much credit for that accomplishment."
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Benjamin-Netanyahu-A-personal-view-from-America-415907

In the same issue of the Jerusalem Post, Ben Caspit, a well-known journalist in the anti-Bibi camp, expressed the opposite opinion (which included Bibi and Sara as a team):​

Thursday, September 17, 2015

The Anyone-but-Bibi Campaign is Alive and Kicking

The Anyone-but-Bibi Campaign is Alive and Kicking

It certainly seems that the Anyone-but-Bibi campaign has been continuing unabated even after the election of Bibi and the Center Right. Now you may have thought that I'm conspiratorial or paranoid, but we now have the facts, and they corroborate the on-going anti-Bibi campaign.
In the September 3, 2015 Jerusalem Post, Ben Caspit (vitriolically anti-Bibi) wrote:
​"Behind the scenes, things are happening. Virtually all the players in the current political system are involved in one single mission: to get rid of Netanyahu next time round. It’s a common objective, even including the Likudniks. On various occasions during the last few months, there have been meetings between Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid and Kulanu chairman Moshe Kahlon. To be accurate, there have been four or five such meetings. Long ones. Some of them took place in the famous basement of Yair Lapid’s home in Tel Aviv’s old northern neighborhood.​"
In other words, we now have some of the clique members by name (I suppose Liberman is part of the group, too), the approximate number of times that they met, and where they meet -- the "famous" basement of Lapid's house (no cameras, no microphones).
All this fits in very nicely with Lapid trying to position himself as the front-running candidate against Bibi in the up-coming election and his recent acquisition of an American campaign adviser.

Don't believe me. Read it for yourself.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/What-are-Herzog-Lapid-and-Kahlon-concocting-415197